Multi-risk assessment and resilience

A sustainable planning cannot neglect the multiple risk sources generally impending on a territory and their interactions.
Multi-risk evaluations are becoming the most efficient instrument to meet this need. In fact, this methodology allows for a joint analysis and a complete definition of all the risks induced by human and natural sources on a specific area. The harmonised quantitative assessment of multiple hazards threatening a specific target, their interactions, and the expected losses, is the result provided by an ideal multi-risk approach. These harmonised assessments are an important tool for addressing decision-makers to effective and economically sustainable strategies.
In the last years, AMRA has devoted significant efforts to develop a quantitative framework for multi-risk assessment able to include the so called “intangible parameters”.
The fully probabilistic multi-risk approach developed by AMRA is a multidisciplinary methodology requiring expertise from a wide range of fields. AMRA is able to define occurrence probabilities and calculate expected losses considering a wide variety of risk sources and taking into account possible scenarios of interaction and cascading effects.
AMRA has participated and leaded different initiatives for the development and implementation of a theoretical framework for quantitative multi-risk assessment and its application to several case studies (Casalnuovo (Italy), Napoli (Italy), Cuenca (Ecuador), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Douala (Cameroon)).

Research lines of AMRA and available tools:
  • Harmonisation of the risk assessment. This activity refers to the development of procedures for risk quantification harmonised in time and space, and using a common loss metric.
  • Assessing Interactions / cascading effects. Assessing interactions, or cascading effects, consists of the identification of the possible scenarios that are likely to happen and that may result in an amplification of the expected losses.
  • Integration of Social Context Variables in the Multi-Risk Framework. The risk assessment for physical losses constitutes the fundamental basis for the quantitative approach of multi-risk. However, contextual conditions such as the socio-economic factors and poorly resilient systems may worsen the initial physical loss scenario. Therefore, AMRA has worked in the development of a consistent framework to consider socio-economic factors in the multi-risk assessment.
  • Multi-Risk Assessment and Decision-Making. AMRA is working on the development of practical tools in order to complement the harmonised multi-risk assessment results with the possibility to quantify the effectiveness of mitigation options and adaptation measures. In this way, the results of the multi-risk assessment provide valuable information for cost/benefit analyses.
Angela Di Ruocco, Alex Garcia-Aristizabal, Claudio Martino, Raffaella Russo, Anna Bozza
  1. METROPOLIS: Methodologies and Integrated and Sustainable Technologies for the adaptation and Security of Urban Systems
  2. GRISIS: Risk management and Safety of Infrastructure at Regional Scal
  3. PROSIT: Plan in Sustainability: qualification and certification in construction industry
  4. STREST: Harmonised approach to stress tests for critical infrastructures against natural hazards
  5. TEMASAV: Technologies and Environmental Monitoring for the Sustainability of Large Areas
  6. VInCES: Integrated Life Cycle Assessment for Sustainable Building
  7. PROVACI: Technologies for seismic protection and enhancement of complexes of cultural Interest
  1. CLUVA: CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa
  2. CRISMA: Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness
  3. MATRIX: New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe
  4. MOSSCLONE: Creating and testing a method for controlling the air quality based on a new biotechnological tool. Use of a devitalized moss clone as passive contaminant sensor
  5. SYNER-G: Systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis for buildings, lifeline networks and infrastructures safety gain funded
  6. SAFELAND: Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies
  7. SoilCAM: Soil Contamination: Advanced integrated characterisation and time-lapse Monitoring
  8. Na.R.As.: Natural Risks Assessment
  9. Cuenca: Risk Management Plan for water supply and sewer systems of Cuenca City, Ecuador
  10. Soroche: Consulting services to protect the Tomebamba-Machangara water supply network of Cuenca City (Ecuador) from the Soroche landslide
  11. ByMuR: BaYesian MUlti-Risk assessment: a case study for natural risks in the city of Naples