Early warning and real time risk mitigation
The term early warning implies an alert given after the detection
of phenomena indicating the generation of a possibly dangerous
event and before the starts damaging a given location. The scale
of alert times is different for different hazards:
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seconds to tens of seconds for EARTHQUAKES;
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minutes to hours for TSUNAMIS;
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hours to days for METEROLOGICAL EVENTS;
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hours to days for FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES;
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hours to weeks for VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS.
The implementation of early warning methods is nowadays considered
as a major tool to face catastrophic natural and man-produced
events in a global planet where population is continuously increasing
and concentrating in mega-cities of several millions and tens
of millions inhabitants. This view sprang out as the results of
discussions held in several Workshops organized in the frame of
European Union Projects, United Nations meetings on early warning
and the Kobe World Conference on Disaster Reduction in January
2005.
It was prompted by the following considerations:
-
many of the emerging mega-cities are located
in areas characterized by a high risk from natural phenomena
(mostly earthquakes and floods). The population under risk is
estimated to triplicate from 1990 to 2015;
-
this process already produced a triplication
of human losses due to catastrophic events from 1950 to 2000.
This is not due to a variation of hazard, but to the population
increase and higher vulnerability of urban environments;
-
a remarkable percentage of human losses
are not due to the primary event, but to triggered events (fires,
industrial accidents, tsunami, landslides, etc.);
-
the implementation of early warning methodologies
is technically feasible and it is a valuable tool for the reduction
of risks associated with triggered events as well;
-
Early Warning methods are not a classical
forecasting method. They can give probabilistic information
after the event started (as in the case of earthquakes) or while
conditions favourable to the event are being built (as for floods).
For practical purposes a warning must be necessarily associated
with the estimate of probability of false alarm.
AMRA has built up a considerable experience in the design of
early warning systems and associated quantitative probabilistic
tools.
Early Warning methods require customized systems for each situation.
AMRA can develop systems including:
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low cost and high space density sensor networks;
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robust and reliable signal transmission systems
able to operate under extreme conditions;
-
capability of fast data processing and modeling
(minutes or less);
-
information and preparation strategies;
-
solution of legal problems.
This area includes three sub-area:
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Consultants
Prof. Aldo Zollo
Università degli Studi di Napoli
Federico II
Prof.
Luciano Picarelli
Seconda Università
degli Studi di Napoli
Prof.
Antonio Nanni
Università
degli Studi di Napoli Federico II |
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